Mapping assumptions
A method for separating observations, interpretations, dependencies, and unknowns before acting on a plan.
Write the proposed action, then ask what must be true for it to work.
Separate the answers into:
- Observed: directly encountered or recorded.
- Supported: backed by relevant evidence.
- Interpreted: one plausible meaning among others.
- Assumed: required by the plan but not established.
- Unknown: currently unavailable or inherently unpredictable.
Prioritise assumptions by importance and uncertainty. Test the assumption whose failure would make the rest of the plan irrelevant.
This method does not eliminate uncertainty. It makes dependence visible. See Evidence reduces but does not remove uncertainty and Running small experiments.