A good decision with a bad outcome
A case for examining reasonable preparation, accepted risk, and an outcome that still went badly.
A small studio studies a real operational problem, confirms that several teams share it, limits the first build, keeps enough cash to stop, and signs one pilot customer. Two months later, the customer’s organisation freezes all new software spending after a leadership change.
The project fails commercially.
The outcome reveals dependence on a narrow customer base and the value of a shorter validation cycle. It does not prove that the original decision was careless. The relevant review separates what was reasonable at the time from what became visible only afterward.
See Decisions and outcomes are different, Mapping assumptions, and What would change our mind?.